Bet on Yourself: Commitment Contracts and Quit Pacts

In my original letter I said that putting your money where your mouth is was one of the best ways to commit to quitting. Behavioural economists have a name for that idea, the commitment contract, and they have tested it on smokers. It's the one bet where you control the outcome.

What a commitment contract is

A commitment contract is an agreement you make with yourself, and usually with someone else, that puts something at stake if you don't follow through. The stake can be money, reputation or both. The idea is to make the future cost of smoking feel real today, when a craving makes the long-term health benefits seem far away.

stickK and similar tools

One of the best-known tools is stickK, launched in 2008 by Yale economists Dean Karlan and Ian Ayres with a business partner. Users set a goal, such as staying smoke-free for six months, choose how long the contract runs and can nominate a referee to confirm whether they succeeded. If they put money at stake, they choose where it goes if they fail: a friend, a charity, or an "anti-charity" they would hate to support. Not every user stakes money; some just use the public commitment and referee.

What the research found

In a well-known study in the Philippines, smokers were offered a savings account into which they deposited money for six months. If they passed a urine test for nicotine at the end, they got their money back; if not, it went to charity. People offered the account were several percentage points more likely to pass the test at six months than those who weren't, and the effect was still visible at a surprise test six months later. That may sound modest, but in quitting research, where many attempts fail, it's a meaningful boost from a simple, low-cost tool.

A large trial among employees of a US company, published in 2015, compared programmes that rewarded people for quitting with programmes that asked them to put down a refundable deposit. Reward programmes were accepted by far more people and helped more people overall. Deposit contracts worked well for those who agreed to them, but far fewer people were willing to sign up. In the UK, a Glasgow trial that gave pregnant smokers shopping vouchers for quitting more than doubled quit rates.

Is it a bet?

It uses the language of betting, and many people find that helps: "I'm betting $500 I'll be smoke-free by my birthday." But unlike a bet at a casino, there are no odds against you and no house edge. You are the only player, and you decide the outcome. It's a way to turn the urge to win into a quitting tool.

Setting up your own quit pact

• Make it specific. "Not a single puff for 90 days from June 1", not "smoke less".
• Choose a stake that stings but won't wreck you. A week or two of cigarette money is a good starting point; see money saved by quitting.
• Pick an honest referee. A partner, friend or colleague who will tell the truth.
• Decide how success is checked. Some people use home carbon monoxide or cotinine tests.
• Agree what happens after a slip before it happens. Losing the stake shouldn't mean giving up; use the moment to re-commit.
• Add proven treatment. A commitment contract is a motivator, not a medicine. Combine it with a quitting method.

Pacts between friends

Friendly versions work too: two friends quit together and the first to smoke buys dinner, or a group puts money into a pot that is shared by everyone still smoke-free after three months. Keep it supportive, not shaming; the aim is to help each other win. Read how to help someone quit for the right tone.